Two dominant forces balance the global oil market: supply and demand. The Iran war has broken both — one perhaps beyond repair.
Supply remains a complete mess. A historic crude glut turned into the worst-ever supply shock before another flood of oil entered the market in June. Now, an intensifying war has again closed off significant access to Persian Gulf oil, reinjecting chaos into the market.
Demand is somehow even more difficult to comprehend.
The world has adapted to the supply shock during five months of war, learning how to cope without using as much oil as it had before the conflict. Hundreds of millions of barrels of oil finally escaped the Strait of Hormuz last month, only to find few willing buyers. Some Middle Eastern crude had to be heavily discounted before it found any takers.
The reasons why the world is turning up its nose at oil are complex.
The solution is far more complicated.
Demand’s big slump
In the three brief weeks that the Strait of Hormuz (mostly) reopened, something unexpected happened: More than 200 million barrels of oil locked inside the Persian Gulf quickly flooded out, but buyers just kind of shrugged their shoulders.
Qatar Energy and the United Arab Emirates’ Adnoc were forced to discount their oil by between $6 and $9 a barrel before finding Southeast Asian buyers, according to Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, which tracks maritime traffic and oil flows.
More than 18 million barrels of non-Iranian oil that left the Strait of Hormuz currently remain on tankers outside the Persian Gulf awaiting a buyer — more than 2.5 times pre-war levels, Falakshahi said.
Iran has had even less luck selling oil than its neighbors. Iran got 70 million barrels of oil out of the strait in the weeks following its memorandum of understanding with the United States. Despite a temporary sanctions waiver from the United States, China was the only buyer willing to bite.
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