As President Donald Trump meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week, Taiwan will be nervously monitoring from afar to ascertain whether its political status and critical arms purchases come up in discussions between the two leaders.
While Taiwanese officials have publicly expressed confidence in the strength of their partnership with the US, some current and former US officials and analysts have questioned if the transactional Trump could offer Xi concessions on Taiwan, especially if he seeks the Chinese leader’s help with negotiating an end to the Iran war.
Under the longstanding “One China” policy, the US acknowledges China’s position that Taiwan is part of China but has never officially recognized the Communist Party’s claim to the self-governing island. Washington maintains robust unofficial relations with Taiwan and has sold billions of dollars in advanced weapons to the island, with bipartisan approval, but has remained intentionally ambiguous on whether it would intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese attack.
Although administration officials have said that the US Taiwan policy remains unchanged, there are concerns that Trump might undermine the democratic island of more than 23 million through deeds or words – wittingly or not.
Trump and Xi have had an ongoing dialogue about Taiwan — last year Trump said the Chinese leader promised he would not invade while his US counterpart is still in office — and now the issue is expected to come up when the two meet, according to multiple sources familiar with the planning.
Trump on Monday said he would discuss US arms sales to Taiwan with Xi – a comment that deepened concerns future sales could be jeopardized.
A senior US official noted the administration’s record of arms sales to Taiwan, which included more than $11 billion in sales last December – one of the largest in history – as a sign of the US commitment to the island.
During Trump’s visit, Xi may try to get some concessions from Trump that the Chinese could announce afterward, a former senior US government official said.
“Such a concession could amount to something like criticizing Taiwan, criticizing the president of Taiwan, or agreeing implicitly not to move forward with the next planned major arms sales package to Taiwan,” the official said, noting that would send a huge message to Taipei.
China certainly feels it is entering the talks with leverage to seek concessions of its own. Chinese sources familiar with the matter recently told CNN that Beijing cautiously views its adversary’s months-long conflict with Iran in particular as having potentially strengthened its negotiating position.
The return of Taiwan – which China’s Communist Party claims but has never controlled – is publicly one of Xi’s most cherished long-term goals.
Taiwan is also watching Trump’s face-to-face with Xi closely.
Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said this week he remains confident in relations with Washington and stressed the US has repeatedly reassured Taipei that its Taiwan policy will not change.
But he also acknowledged the anxiety surrounding the summit, saying, “Of course we hope that the Trump-Xi summit does not produce any surprises regarding Taiwan-related issues.”
Lin’s deputy was more candid in an interview with Bloomberg in late April.
“What we are the most afraid (of) is to put Taiwan on the menu of the talk between Xi Jinping and President Trump,” Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu said. “We worry, and we need to avoid that it happens.”
A Taiwan national security official told CNN they had received assurances ahead of Trump’s trip.
“US officials have in recent days repeatedly reaffirmed their firm support for Taiwan,” the source said.
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